Joe Biden is going to win in 2024. There are lots of reasons for this, and there are reasons why you disagree, but ultimately Biden will win re-election.
First, let’s talk about why you think Biden won’t win again. The polls are shit. Polling is bad. It isn’t useless, I think polling is very useful for primaries, but polling for a general election a year away is a total waste of time.
Issue polling is meaningless, at best you get a sense of what people’s opinions are but rarely a sense of what actually matters or motivates people. Approval polling is broken, largely due to a third of the country being so rabidly partisan against the Democrats that there is literally nothing a president can do to win their approval. Possible Biden approval poll respondents are too busy comparing Biden to an ideal president, so are likely as well to be negative.