Predicting Our Way Out Of A Crisis

These developments can have disastrous unintended downstream consequences and can very easily lead to increasing stigma and under-treating pain. We cannot adequately predict future outcomes, even with genetic testing, and I don’t believe tools like this have significant validity. As noted on MedPage Today, the company which created the test, SOLVD, presented results of a single observational study that utilized machine learning as a predictive algorithm to the FDA which demonstrated a sensitivity of 82.76% and a specificity of 79.23% for detecting opioid use disorder. This level of specificity for what should be considered a critical clinical decision instrument would be considered unacceptable by most standards for predicting bad outcomes.

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Tags: Predicting