The Prosecutor’s Fallacy

<p>You know that you are innocent, but physical evidence at the scene of the crime matches your description. The prosecutor argues that you are guilty because the odds of finding this evidence given that you are innocent are so small that the jury should discard the probability that you did not actually commit the crime.</p> <p>But those numbers don&rsquo;t add up. The prosecutor has misapplied&nbsp;<em>conditional probability</em>&nbsp;and neglected the prior odds of you, the defendant, being guilty before they introduced the evidence.</p> <p><a href="https://towardsdatascience.com/the-prosecutors-fallacy-cb0da4e9c039"><strong>Website</strong></a></p>