The Laplace Succession Law, also known as the Rule of Succession, is a principle in probability theory developed by Pierre-Simon Laplace. It is used to estimate the probability of an event’s future occurrence based on its past occurrences, particularly when dealing with a small sample size. This rule is especially notable for providing a way to handle cases where an event has not yet been observed.
The basic formula of the Laplace Succession Law for estimating the probability of an event E occurring next, given that it has occurred s times in n trials, is given by: