Tag: forecasting

Physicists define climate as a “complex system”. While there are a lot of interpretations about it, in this specific case we can consider “complex” to be “unsolvable in analytical ways”. This may seems discouraging, but it actually pave...

Optimizing business operations have never been more important with a possible recession looming large in the coming year. One of the most important tools that help optimize business is demand forecasting. It can be a real game changer if implemented properly. Although its primary purpose is to ensur...

Time series forecasting is a difficult problem with no easy answer. There are countless statistical models that claim to outperform each other, yet it is never clear which model is best. That being said, ARMA-based models are often a good model to start with. They can achieve decent scores on mos...

The Holt-Winters method — also known as triple exponential smoothing — is an incredibly popular and relatively simple method for time series forecasting. This article will be a somewhat thorough introduction into the math and theory of the Holt-Winters method, complete with a Python...