When Things Aren’t What They Seem: Simpson’s Paradox
<p>Simpson’s bias is a statistical paradox first described by Edward H. Simpson in a 1951 paper titled “The Interpretation of Interaction in Contingency Tables.” It demonstrates how aggregated data can mask underlying behaviors within sub-groups. This phenomenon occurs when a relationship observed within multiple groups reverses direction when the groups are combined. This is due to the lurking variables that are not accounted for in the aggregated data.</p>
<h2>Origins and History</h2>
<p>The paradox was named after British statistician Edward Simpson, who detailed the effect in his work. However, the phenomenon had been noticed earlier, with instances documented in the 1890s. Karl Pearson, another statistician, encountered a similar issue in 1899, illustrating that the paradox has been challenging researchers across various fields for over a century.</p>
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