5 Things About The 2024 Election — Late January 2024
<p><strong>Let’s start with the obvious: this election is wide open.</strong> Polls at this stage of the race don’t really mean much, but they are somewhat useful snapshots of what’s going through American voter minds at the moment. In other words, I am not using current polls to make inferences on what the future holds in November and neither should you.</p>
<p><strong>Both Donald Trump and Joe Biden are polling poorly. </strong>Trump is currently ahead in the Real Clear Politics average by 4 points, which may excite the MAGA crowd and make Democrats paranoid, but there are lot of pitfalls here. Quality surveys have been few and far between. Polling has consistently shown that if Trump is convicted in any of the three criminal cases that have a shot at going to trial before November (his Georgia RICO case isn’t), his support will quickly evaporate. On the other hand, many people are still angry at Biden, blaming him (unfairly) for inflation and the issues at the border. Trump has frequently <em>failed </em>to hit more than 50% in the lower quality national surveys.</p>
<p><a href="https://bluechristophe.medium.com/5-things-about-the-2024-election-late-january-2024-e59915b9e0d9"><strong>Read More</strong></a></p>