The Pitfalls of Familiarity
<p>Linda is a 31-year old single woman. She is outspoken and very bright. She majored in philosophy, and as a student, she was deeply concerned with discrimination and social justice issues. She never missed an opportunity to participate in anti-nuclear energy demonstrations.</p>
<p>Which one of these statements is more probable?</p>
<ol>
<li>Linda is a bank teller</li>
<li>Linda is a bank teller and is active in the feminist movement</li>
</ol>
<p>If you answered 2, congratulations, you’re in the majority (~85%)!</p>
<p>Except that it’s the wrong answer. Assume that the probability of Linda being a bank teller <em>P(A) </em>is 0.5, and the probability of her being active in the feminist movement <em>P(B)</em> is 0.8. To know the probability of those two events happening together <em>P(C)</em>, we would need to multiply <em>P(A)</em> and <em>P(B)</em>:</p>
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