September 19: How Mexico City has survived, a statistical anomaly or an overinterpretation of probability?

September 19 is a date that has fatefully marked Mexico City. The earthquakes that occurred in 1985 and 2017 resulted in the loss of thousands of lives and caused extensive damage to property and infrastructure. An earthquake measuring 7.7 on the Richter scale struck Coalcomán, Michoacán, Mexico on the exact same date in 2022. Due to its proximity and nature, it was perceived as strong in Mexico City and in other states of Mexico. There is no need to explain the strangeness that the event aroused in the general population. Spontaneous explanations ranging from superstition, law of attraction and even the relationship of the month of September with earthquakes, circulated through social networks throughout the day. Without a doubt, the question implied in everyone’s mind was “How likely is this to happen?”. A legitimate and disturbing question that can be answered from different contexts and the answers are even more disturbing. The objective of this text is to define the parameters of this question at hand and to emphasize the significance of utilizing probability-based approaches to gain a more comprehensive understanding of our reality. <a href="https://eflopezruiz.medium.com/september-19-how-mexico-city-has-survived-a-statistical-anomaly-or-an-overinterpretation-of-7389e63594e6">Learn More</a>