A Gentle Introduction to Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Maximum A Posteriori Estimation
<p>In 2018-19 season, Liverpool FC won 30 matches out of 38 matches in Premier league. Having this data, we’d like to make a guess at the probability that Liverpool FC wins a match in the next season.</p>
<p>The simplest guess here would be <em>30/38 = 79%</em>, which is the best possible guess based on the data. This actually is an estimation with <strong>MLE</strong> method.</p>
<p>Then, assume we know that Liverpool’s winning percentages for the past few seasons were around 50%. Do you think our best guess is still 79%? I think some value between 50% and 79% would be more realistic, considering the prior knowledge as well as the data from this season. This is an estimation with <strong>MAP</strong> method.</p>
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