ACT Research: Encouraging Data Indicate a Less Severe Economic Downturn for 2023
<p>According to <a href="https://www.actresearch.net/kenny-vieth/" rel="noopener ugc nofollow" target="_blank">Kenny Vieth</a>, ACT’s President and Senior Analyst, “The critical factor in forecasting 2023 is identifying the point at which lower freight volumes and rates, coupled with higher borrowing costs compress carrier profits sufficiently to end the cycle. Our current thinking is the negatives begin to weigh on orders as soon as 1H’23, and more meaningfully by 2H’23.” He added, “However, with healthy backlogs, early 2023 carrier profitability strength, and the potential for a CARB-induced prebuy in California, there is a compelling case to be made for production volumes to be sustained at end-of-2022 levels through all of 2023.”</p>
<p>“Reflecting softer macro and freight trends, ACT’s forward-looking Tractor Dashboard remained in negative territory in November. While the dashboard has signaled incoming softness since March, </p>
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