A simple explanation of Bayes’ theorem

<h1>A probability experiment</h1> <p>Imagine you have a bag containing 100 plastic tokens. Some are square, some are circular. Some are red, some are blue. To be precise:</p> <ul> <li>80% of the tokens are squares, the rest are circles.</li> <li>Of the square tokens, 75% are red and 25% are blue.</li> <li>Of the circle tokens, 10% are red and 90% are blue.</li> </ul> <p>Now suppose someone takes a token from the bag, without you seeing it. They tell you it is blue, and ask you to guess the shape. Given that 90% of the circles are blue, many people might well guess that the shape is almost certainly a circle. In this article, we will see why that logic is flawed.</p> <p><a href="https://medium.com/recreational-maths/a-simple-explanation-of-bayes-theorem-5332ac7d2058"><strong>Click Here</strong></a></p>