7 Expert Opinions That Most People Don’t Agree With
<p>Recently, I wrote a defense of the uncontroversial-within-cognitive-science-but-widely-disbelieved idea that <a href="https://www.scotthyoung.com/blog/2023/07/25/the-mind-is-a-computer/" rel="noopener ugc nofollow" target="_blank">the mind is a computer</a>.</p>
<p>That post got me thinking about other ideas that are broadly accepted amongst the expert communities that study them, but not among the general population.</p>
<p>I agreed with some of the following ideas before I read much about them; for these, the expert consensus reinforced my prior worldview. But for most, I had to be persuaded. Many ideas are genuinely surprising, and one needs to be confronted with a lot of evidence before changing their mind about it.</p>
<h1>1. Markets Are Mostly Efficient. Most People, Most of the Time, Cannot “Beat” the Market</h1>
<p>The <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Efficient-market_hypothesis" rel="noopener ugc nofollow" target="_blank">efficient market hypothesis</a> argues that the price of widely-traded securities, like stocks, reflects an aggregation of all available information about them. This means investors can’t spot “deals” or “overpriced” assets and use that knowledge to outperform the average market return (without taking on more risk).</p>
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